Von Neugierigen mit langen Schwänzen... zu Markt- und Trendanalyse

Wenn ich als Kind in der Küche meiner Oma stand, dann war ich, wie andere Kinder auch, sehr neugierig. Irgendwo in diesem Raum gab es Schokolade, soviel war sicher. Ein Mini-Tischkicker lag manchmal ganz oben auf dem Schrank. Da konnte es also durchaus noch andere spannende Sachen geben. Also stand ich da und wollte wissen, was in jedem Schrank ist und besonders, was oben auf dem Schrank liegt. „Neugierige mit langen Schwänzen,“ antwortete mir meine Oma, wenn ihr die Fragerei zu viel wurde. Aber was um Himmels willen waren „Neugierige mit langen Schwänzen“??


Ja, die Küche meiner Oma hatte es in sich…

Neugierig bin ich immer noch und habe daraus meinen Beruf gemacht. Als Markt- und Trendanalystin bin ich neugierig im Auftrag von Organisationen, die wissen wollen, wie sich ihr Marktumfeld verändert. Ich recherchiere in Datenbanken, Statistiken, in Blogs und Tweets, ich spreche mit Auskennern und Nicht-Kennern. Ich bringe meine Ergebnisse in eine verständliche Form, damit es ganz klar wird, was in einem Markt gerade läuft –und wohin die Reise gehen könnte. Nach einer neugierigen Situationsanalyse lassen sich gute Entscheidungen treffen. Davon bin ich überzeugt.

Und warum ich das aufschreibe?

Na, um neugierig zu machen auf meine neue Website: http://www.ines-seidel.de/

Übrigens, die Engländer irren, wenn sie meinen „Curiosity killed the cat.“ Es muss heißen „Curiosity saved the cat.“ Ohne Neugier gibts nur Stagnation.

Giveaways, Spielzeug und Marktforschung

Die Stiftung Warentest trat letzte Woche mit der "bösen Überraschung" an die Öffentlichkeit, dass 80% der getesteten Spielwaren mit gesundheitsgefährenden Schadstoffen belastet sind. Markennamen waren dabei leider kein Garant für Qualität. Daran musste ich denken als ich heute auf der Research & Results Messe meine Tasche mit den Messeinformationen und Giveaways erhielt. Darunter war auch ein Spielzeug - eine knautschige Giraffe made in China. Natürlich weiss ich nicht, ob die gut gemeinte Aufmerksamkeit der GfK Gruppe auch Schadstoffe enthält. Steht ja nicht drauf. Ich sehe nur Plastikverpackung, ich rieche den penetranten Plastikgeruch und was ich nicht erkennen kann, ist der Nutzwert. Darf man von einem Marktforschungsunternehmen, das zum Beispiel herausgefunden hat, dass sich VerbraucherInnen ökologische Verpackungen wünschen, dann auch erwarten dass es seinen eigenen Ergebnissen traut? Tja. Aber es geht eigentlich nicht um die GfK (deren kompetenten Service ich in meiner Zeit als Fernsehforscherin zu schätzen gelernt habe). Werbegeschenke von Firmen sind häufig nicht besonders nachhaltig.
Dabei geht es auch anders. Ein Beispiel dafür fand ich beim Markenartikler Kimberly Clark, dessen Toilettenpapiermarke Scott (in den USA) derzeit als Giveaway die "Smart Flush Bag" enthält: Die Tüte wird in den Spülkasten gelegt, saugt sich dort voll Wasser und bewirkt dadurch, dass bei jedem Spülgang etwas weniger Wasser zu Abwasser wird. Eine gute Idee, die Kosten und Wasser spart und ein gutes Licht auf die Marke wirft.


Übrigens hat Wirtschaftsminister Brüderle nun gefordert, die EU-Richtlinien für Chemikalien in Spielzeug zu überarbeiten. Für Giveaways rechne ich nicht mit Richtlinien, aber Marktforschungsunternehmen werden die Zeichen der Zeit sicher schnell erkennen...

If Creativity was Currency

Some weeks back, the little Gallery Patrizia Zewe hosted Munich’s first art- for-service swap. Artists traded their works (see picture) for services they could use, like a course in digital photography or a ride to Frankfurt. Many similar exchange projects exist  – one of the latest that caught my attention is Clothing for Correspondence,  a service by professional texters, who will write your fun correspondence in exchange for second hand clothes.

Just odd experiments? Well, most of the time, creativity has to be translated into an accepted currency before it pays the bill. This is what David Thorne learned, when he allegedly tried to pay his electricity bill with a spider doodle in 2008. Now a Brooklyn hospital finds that time is an acceptable currency, too, and that health care services can be paid with performances.

In May, the Woodhull Medical and Mental Health Center in Brooklyn will launch the Artist Access program , which will allow artists to collect health care credits for a performance in the geriatric ward, for teaching drawing in the pediatric unit or for decorating the hospital interior with murals. Health care credits (40 credits per hour) can then be used to pay for fees incurred at Woodhull for health care services.

Transactions without money will become less exotic in the Gig Economy, I am sure of that. And, well, the reason I am shedding a light on this topic is that I am willing to exchange 5 of my doodle art envelopes for a decent sun hat.

Trends affecting Creative Industries

Last year I had the pleasure to take part in a project that investigated developments related to the Creative Economy. A presentation with some of the results has been published now.

Trend Pulse For Creative Industries

View more presentations from Ines Seidel.

The most obvious result has been maybe that the Creative Economy has started to unfold already. And there is no going back. Looking at the amount of studies on Creative Industries that result is certainly not a surprise anymore.

What became increasingly clear is that the professional inside the creative economy is a different animal than the professional of the age of industrialized mass-production. This has implications for education, work organization, measuring success etc. These implications are also obvious, but nevertheless have mostly not led to conscious changes of educational systems or organizational structures. Indeed, changes seem hard to implement, because they require more than just a few add-ons or adjustments to the existing economy. They require to make decisions from a different mind set.

Or do they? What became clearer to me after the study finished was that mind sets evolve as well, even if there is no intention to change, simply because we're all witnessing the paradigm shift around us. Yes, mind sets evolve too slow to avoid a certain level of friction and dissatisfaction, but nevertheless...

Happy Economy

People have always wanted a happy life. What is new today is that economists, business leaders and whole governments are discussing how to assure that the increase of happiness is the goal of the economy. Much of the discussion concentrates on GDP (Gross Domestic Growth) or rather, alternatives to GDP, which would for instance account also for sustainability, equality of opportunities and subjective measures of happiness.
Among the candidates discussed are the the Human Development Index (HDI), used by the UN's Development Programme, the Genuine Progress Indicator, which incorporates aspects of social welfare, or the Happy Planet Index (HPI), which combines economic metrics with subjective indicators of well-being.

What would an economy that strives for happiness look like? Well, we can maybe look to Bhutan for some inspiration. Bhutan is the only country in the world where government policy is measured in terms of the impact on national happiness. In 2006, Bhutan banned some TV channels like wrestling and MTV which they felt did not promote happiness. Bhutan has banned Tobacco and plastic bags on the grounds that they make the country less happy. In order to hold back consumerism, advertising in public spaces is banned. Strict laws have been put in place to protect the environment. The standard of living is not as high as it could have been as growth has been moderated on purpose. (Source: BBC)

Slow and Fast

“How do we slow down what matters the most and speed up what benefits change and progress? We don’t want to impede progress, but we are seeking reconnection to ourselves, to each other, and with the world.”- John Maeda, president of the Rhode Island School of Design. Quote taken from Hurry up and Wait, a recent feature at Good that asked various artists and futurists about the prospect of the Slow Movement.

From Job Frustration to Responsibility

Over the past weeks, I have had some informal discussions with people (in Germany) about their job situation and what I heard was a deep dissatisfaction with management, the organizational culture or "the system" as a whole:

People are frustrated that they are treated "as if we were stupid" (for instance when management does not communicate the background of decisions).

People are frustrated that their personal engagement (doing more than what is expected) or experience is not valued or is even regarded as a nuisance.

Often, personal engagement ("the reason why I wanted to do this job") is cut short because the focus inside the organization is merely on quantity of results, efficiency of operation and there is no time to do something "as good as it should be done", for fostering personal work relationships or for developing new ideas.

People are frustrated about a focus on control rather than trust. Consequently, executives are often viewed as inflexible or authoritarian.

In sum, the people I talked to had the feeling that they are not seen or not recognized by management. As a result they tell themselves that their organization does not deserve or want anything else but medium performance.

People seem to put up with their frustrations because...

• They feel helpless ("this is how things are, they will not change and I have to cope somehow").


• They feel dependent on the money or other benefits ("better than no job so I can't complain").
  
• They cannot imagine a different kind of working. Fun or passion are not associated with a job. (And that I find really sad.)

Now, if all of the above was only true for the 10 to 15 people that I spoke with, there would still be no reason to be sad. However, I suspect that I spoke with representatives of the 87% of the employees in Germany that are not emotionally engaged with their work (which means they just "work-to-rule" or are completely disengaged) - this is the figure Gallup found in their 2008 Employee Engagement Survey. I would expect the situation to be worse in the new survey that will be published in spring. And, mind you, I am not talking about a specifically German problem. Compared to some other European countries, Germany is still doing ok.

One might think that having a workforce that is, by and large, neither very committed nor productive should ring a few alarm bells. Not just among companies, but nationwide. After all, national competitiveness, the holy cow, is at stake.

Yet, when politicians talk about the need to increase innovation and creativity (as they do for instance in the "EU 2020" strategy), they don't seem to be aware that the level of de-motivation and mistrust in organizations is working against their planned measures (which focus on R&D investments, new financing models and digital networks).

A key word here is empowerment. Managers should be empowered to shake off the habit of controlling and take on the responsibility to truly see the potential of each employee. Employees need to be empowered so that they can shake off the habit of helplessness and take responsibility for their work engagement.

Empowerment is a process that can be facilitated...yet, individuals or organizations have to go through a learning process on their own. Nobody can do that for them. Facing the anger and frustration is a good start as a lot of energy and power can flow from this. - Exactly what is needed to take responsibility for positive change!

Cooking up the Future

How To Cook Up The Future

View more documents from Ines Seidel.

I came up with this little "How to" after thinking about Empowerment.

Empowerment is certainly one of the key words of our time. We see the empowered web-user, the empowered consumer, the empowered employee, the empowered learner,... Empowerment leads to a certain demystification of the expert - the expert is valued not so much because of the facts that she knows but because she can facilitate others to behave in an expert way: teachers are to facilitate learners to teach themselves, leaders are to lead people to lead themselves, brands let consumers create their own brand experience.

What does or could empowerment lead to in the field of foresight consulting? And what is the role of the expert here?

I think that also in relation to THE FUTURE, the expert has to be demystified. Empowerment of everybody is necessary as everybody should understand that THE FUTURE is not something that happens to us, but is instead an experience that we create collectively, by choosing to live one way rather than another way.

Much like a soup can - for better or worse - be cooked by many cooks, we all create the context for the next-moment-experience together. Typically, without being aware of it. Conscious decision making could lead to better results, right?

The Slumdog Meme

Watching out for trends and recognizing developments early on equals spotting memes that are fitter for survival than others. This thought (or meme) struck me as I was reading "The Meme Machine" by Susan Blackmore.

According to the theory memes, "like genes, are replicators competing to find space in our minds and cultures". If we stick with the idea of memes, then a large part of communication, of the beliefs we hold and the culture we adhere to, in fact, our whole identity is constructed of memes. We lend our energy to memes, imitate and spread them, but we are not the creators of them. Memes that can connect to other memeplexes (e.g. in the form of beliefs and ideas that a person already holds) have a better chance of survival than isolated memes.

Memeplex docking stations could for instance be used to explain the success of "Slumdog Millionaire". With success, I am not just referring to the eight Oscars that the British film won, but also the continued public interest in the life of the street children, the accelerated export of Indian goods that the search engine Alibaba ascribes to Slumdog Millionaire, and the celebrity status that the Indian actors now enjoy in the rest of the world (e.g. Freida Pinto becomes a L'Oreal face, Irrfan Khan on the cover of GQ).

Memeplex docking stations:

• Empathy: A growing share of citizens found that they care for people in need - both far away (which may force a company like H&M to monitor working conditions in its supplying textile factories) as well as next door (e.g. by adding a human touch to the emergency department of a hospital as a volunteer). Being interested in the life of street kids fits nicely.
  
• Fairytale ending: The underdog who wins not only money but also love is an all time favorite - but not necessarily in films that depict the harsh realities of slums! The unrealistic course of the story caused a lot of criticism for Slumdog, yet, it definitely is part of the success: People want the misery (including their own) to end with happiness and not with more depression. Personally, I'd say that giving people an optimistic vision is a noble cause these days - and the spread of various "acts of kindness" initiatives shows that this, too, is a successful memeplex.
  
• Bollywood Fever: Bollywood movies have become popular outside of India and so have Bollywood dancing classes. Bollywood now attracts stars like Kylie Minogue and Wall Street Journal is telling us what managers can learn about leadership from a Bollywood dancing course. Which means Bollywood is in itself a very successful memeplex. While Slumdog Millionaire is not a true Bollywood film, it quotes several Bollywood elements, the most obvious maybe being the dancing scenes in the very end.
  
• Indian culture as such is becoming interesting, as India is increasingly seen as a future super power. For instance, in Germany, the popular children TV programme "Sendung mit der Maus" recently dedicated its total airtime to documenting Indian family life for children (usually the broadcast is a mix of several short animated cartoons and mini documentaries.)

Slumdog may be forgotten in a few months (well, not so fast if the planned sequel becomes a reality), the carrier memeplexes may continue to influence our thoughts and culture, though not necessarily in the form they have today.

Picture: "Slumdog" vs "Bollywood" in Google Trends

Stop asking when the downturn will be over

On every other business website you are being polled today about when you think the downturn will be over. Consultancies and research institutions chase headlines with surveys of executives or other "downturn experts" (like financial analysts) on that same question. And everyone is looking for signs of an upturn. Of course, when you search for these signs, you will find some. But is all this waiting for the end of the downturn really helpful?

The assumption behind the worried question about the duration of the downturn is that after a while, things will go back to normal. A bit more patience, a period of hardship, and then, alas! it will be business as usual and this feeling of vulnerability and uncertainty will go away. However, going back to 2006, 2007 or 2008 is the least likely thing to happen.

I think that our brains are playing tricks on us in this matter. Adjusting to a different concept is always costly for the brain and before it rewires its little nodes it prefers to filter out information that does not fit into the concepts that it invested in before. In this case, the dominating concepts are concepts of growth. Information that says you will NOT own a new car soon, you will NOT get a promotion and a salary raise, profits of your company will NOT pick up again surely cannot be true. Or at least, they cannot permanently be true. Says your brain. Well, I don't know exactly about your brain, but many of the surveys seem to have been filled out be people with brains that project the future as a linear continuation of the past, with just this awkward gap in between.

However, sticking with the old concept of growth is disabling as it leads to passively waiting and to being worried. Being worried is a waste of energy, though, energy that should be spent on agility, flexibility, adaption. Once we can accept that a fundamental change is happening, the fearful waiting can stop.

Responding to the Downturn – with Compassion

I am just summarizing a project about “Effects of the Downturn” – hundreds of weak and strong signals were collected* that are – directly or indirectly – related to the recession.

Reading through these observations has a depressing effect: Millions of people are losing their jobs. And those who don’t are worried about losing their jobs. The feeling of insecurity and uncertainty leads to frustration, sometimes to riots, sometimes to mental problems. The way of life that was taken for granted has become fragile, and as an effect we see downsizing and reduced consumption.

A lot has also been written about the opportunities that the downturn brings, and this is something I definitely believe in: There is an upside to every downside. Depression is not the only possible reaction.

Yet, one opportunity, one way of responding to the crisis is very often overlooked, also by me. That is surprising because it is actually about a very simple, very human reaction: Responding with compassion and empathy.

When a friend is worried and frustrated, you care for her, listen to her, cheer her up. Now we see many signals pointing to the same friendly, compassionate behavior – but coming from companies, employers and governments.

For instance Dunkin' Donuts, a restaurants chain in Florida, are offering customers a free cup of coffee every Wednesday throughout February. "We appeal to the consumer that earns a hard day's wages and wants a real, down-to-Earth, quality product," Dunkin Donuts announced. The new Chevrolet Aveo was advertised in credit-crunched London this month with a billboard advert made entirely from one-pence coins. The installation only lasted 30 minutes as hundreds of passers-by seized their moment to pick up a penny or two.(see a video here)
The fashion retailer Anthropologie (U.S.) is giving away styling tips in free “reinvention workshops” to help women get the most out of their existing wardrobe. “We wanted to share something really personal,“Anthropologie’s chief merchandising officer, Wendy Wurtzburger explained.
Coca-Cola is is launching a new global ad campaign with the claim “Open Happiness”, “hoping to appeal to consumers' longing for comfort and optimism at a time when the weakening economy is sapping soft-drink sales.” (WSJ). BusinessWeek reports today that “Indian CEOs take voluntary pay cuts to avoid layoffs.-“We will lead by example in taking the initiative,” an Infosys director is quoted. Besides showcasing leadership, such actions could help restore confidence among employees, the article confirms.

Of course, companies are under cost pressure and may not think they can afford to show compassion. But for one thing, showing compassion does not necessarily translate to giving away a free lunch. A message that simply acknowledges that “we’re in this together” can go a long way. And secondly, this is not a time to make big profits, but it may well be the time were companies can form lasting emotional bonds with their clients and employees and establish a level of trust that was hard to reach in the not so far away era of conspicious consumption and career hopping.


Coca-Cola’s Open Happiness campaign reminded me of a research project that the New York Times wrote about last December: A long time survey found that happiness is contagious and therefore, even strangers may cheer you up. Or in other words: You and I can influence how deep the depression is allowed to go. :-)

*at Finpro we use Trendwiki to collect weak signals and turn them into applicable foresight.

Alternative to Mistrust

Greenwashing, credibility of companies and new trends in marketing have been following me as topics over the last months. If you look at these issues closely, they are all related to trust. What constitutes trust and how do you get others to trust you or your products are topics that fuel research and fill racks of books.
It appears that the more researchers find out about the mechanics of trust, and the more companies or marketers apply this knowledge, the more people feel manipulated. Which makes it in turn harder to gain their trust.

Taken to the extreme this build-up of attack and defence would lead to a society of mistrust.

Or alternatively, to a society were people understand as much (and more) about their usually unconscious decision making processes as neuroscientists and marketing specialists. Given the choice, I would like to live in a conscious society, were people do trust each other but on a thoroughly conscious level. The word "trust" would become obsolete as there is also no mistrust, just clarity.

And as I was reading "The Back of the Napkin" by Dan Roam, the idea of creating a picture story about trust and mistrust formed in, well 3 evenings :-)

Little Picture Book Of Trust

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: trust mistrust)

Ready for Post Materialist Consumption

The idea to stop buying stuff was once the preserve of radical “freeganes” or anti-globalists. Now the concept is getting high level support: Sir Martin Sorrell, founder and CEO of WPP, the world’ No 2 advertising group after Omnicom, was reported to say “Our view, which is counter to what you expect our industry to argue, is that conspicuous consumption is not productive, and should be discouraged.”
Futurologist Faith Popcorn might take Sorrell as proof for the trend she dubbed "Karma Capitalism" trend: Consumers, driven in part by economic imperatives and their own growing sense of social responsibility, are gravitating toward cheaper stores and more environmentally friendly products and are shunning consumption. (see this article)
Harvard Business School professor John Quelch found a new category of consumers: The middle-aged “Simplifiers” who are more interested in experience than in possession. (see more here)

“Live simply” is the new motto – either out of choice or out of necessity. “Live simply and let others simply live” could in fact be the formula to erase many of mankind’s problems.

However, at this point it gets complicated because when some people decide to live simply, others lose their profits or their jobs or the welfare net that they relied on. And so governments run for help with bailout money and the vow to incentivize consumption.

But it does not seem to work so far. Brian Gendreau, a strategist at ING Investment Management in New York analyzed that "normally markets are driven by fear and greed. Now it's fear and fear." Getting greed (as the desire to consume more and more) back into the system seems to be the only solution to the current crisis that governments and companies can imagine. Greed is the familiar. The unfamiliar only causes more fear.

Many consumers – or lets call them citizens – seem to realize that the situation does not call for a re-installation of greed. Governments should stop denying that reality and save their money for more urgent projects. Face the harsh reality of the end of growth through consumption and downsize with honesty and empathy. Face the fear in the market and learn from "sociopreneurs" how to overcome its numbing effects - and that making business may be rewarding without huge profits.

Picture from Greengaged via The Idea Feed

Cool: Being offline

Using social media has become a mainstream activity - this is at least what surveys like Social Media Tracker wave 3 (byUniversal McCann) tell us. If that is truly so, being active in networks, blogs, tweets etc. must be already yesteryear's fashion to the trendsetters and early adopters. Its simply not cool to be main stream!

In fact, the world is ripe for a counter trend to constant online activities, since constant networking also means perpetual disruption which translates to stress and productivity loss.

But how can anyone who makes a point of being part of an elite of forerunners show that offline is the new black?

One way of going offline with style would be to turn logging out into a luxury. In a way, power napping in spas (like Yelo in New York) or with special equipment (like the napshell or the EnergyPod) offers just that.

Another idea could be to have a zero communication service (by telecommunication providers ?)which holds back all communication in a defined area for a selected time. At a premium price, of course. Have not seen this yet but it is just a question of time...

Companies can also reserve rooms where employees can work completely uninterrupted. Would it not feel like a privelege to work for a company that frees staff from stress?

At any rate, stating that one decided to quit a network or an online habit may become just as main stream as joining one of the community services. As an added value, such a statement adds an aura of no-nonsense down-to-earth rationality to the person who made the statement.

Come to think of it, such a statement started yesterday's Iconoculture newsletter: "I committed Twittercide the other day. And while I'm sure it was disappointing to the couple hundred Twitter followers who had gotten used to updates on what I ate for dinner (usually lasagna) or my level of exhaustion (high), I retired my account for many reasons — one of which was the fact that I wasn't having much fun with that aspect of my identity anymore."

Related: Communicate Less

Picture by OmirOnia (sxc)

Life after the Crunch

After I wrote the post about how the downturn affects services I accidentally saw the Slideshare competition on Credit Crunch.
To be honest, the credit crunch as a phenomenon does not interest me much, but how it affects you and me really intrigues me. So I put this short presentation together:

Life After the Crunch

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: economics crunch)

Impact of Downturn on Services

Yesterday I was asked if there are any news reports on the impact of the downturn on the service industry in Germany.

I could not find anything specific. The German media are full of stories, of course, but the main concern at the moment is on how long and deep the recession will hit Germany, what it means to GDP growth and unemployment. The industry that gets most attention probably is the car industry.

Consumer confidence in the U.S. has cracked much earlier than it did in Europe. So, based on the "weak signals" I gathered from there it can be deduced that service industry will suffer - but there are also new service demands.

U.S. consumers cut spending on extras (including services like eating out, having someone to mow the lawn etc.) and spend more time at home + with family.
From my "signal collection" I see evidence for growing need for services that support:

• Financial security: One of the biggest questions is "where is my money still save"? And another one "where can I earn money"? (An interesting idea to the last question are "gold parties" - modelled after Tupper parties, but instead of buying plastic boxes you get money for gold jewelry in the assuring company of friends in your own house).
  Alternative ownership models: e.g. car sharing, second hand shops, renting toys, buying a stake in farm land and work there during leisure time,...
• Enjoying the home: Americans (and also many Europeans) traveled less during the summer. Their attention turns to house + garden. Interest e.g. in courses/services related to gardening, cooking, pets, bike repairing,...
• Health: it seems that demand for dental services (more teeth grinding, seriously) and psychological consultations went up. Also in health sector “help to help yourself” is seen as having potential
• Professional qualification seen as the best way to face threat of unemployment. One growing field is e.g. brain training
• Security: rising theft and other more threatening delinquencies leave consumers as well as companies and cities in fear. Everything that helps to track “out of the way” behavior (including panic) and helps guard against offenses has potential

Futurist Associations

Some time ago I made a little overview on networks/associations for futurists. Maybe helpful also for others:

• International Institute of Forecasters. http://forecasters.org/ – Membership is $120 a year with the benefit of getting their “Journal of Forecasting”, their newsletter (called Oracle) and the magazine “Foresight” for free. (see index here http://forecasters.org/foresight/index.html) They have an annual conference with high-profile speakers. On the whole maybe a bit scholarly, but certainly interesting!
• Association of Professional Futurists (http://www.profuturists.org/) - “Our members provide a unique perspective to anticipate and influence the future. We provide network and community building opportunities for best practice sharing and professional growth. We are setting the standard of excellence for professional futurists.” Membership is $195 or $500 for the whole organization.” They are also interesting, but maybe more so for someone in U.S., in order to benefit from their community and teaching offers (they are based in Waltham, Massachusetts).
• World Future Society (http://www.wfs.org/ ). Membership is only $49 a year. Members have several benefits in the form of a newsletter (Futurist Update), the bimonthly magazine “The Futurist” – seems to be widely read by foresight producing people - , the quarterly research publication “Futures Research Quarterly” and discounts on events and conferences. – Probably the association with best value for money :-)
• European Futurist Conference (http://www.european-futurists.org/) is not an association, but a conference - next time end of October 2008 in Lucerne. The member list of the advisory board that organizes the conference reads like a Who’s Who of European trend researchers and foresight consultancies. (see http://www.european-futurists.org/wEnglisch/who_we_are/adwisory_board.php). Attending the conference does not come cheap, though: It would cost 1200€ to attend both days (see program here) .

Do you know of other transnational networks for mingling with futurists? Let me know!

Review: Anatomy of Trends

Just finished reading "Anatomy of a Trend" by Henrik Vejlgard. (find it here at Amazon). The cover was promising:"In Anatomy of a Trend, pioneering trend sociologist Henrik Vejlgaard reveals this startling truth: there are actually predictable patterns behind every trend." I was not startled at all, but I was immediately hooked.

However, Vejlgard's interest in trends is narrower then could have been guessed from the book's title and cover. His main focus is on changes in style and taste, i.e. things that would be described as "trendy". Something like mobile microblogging, playgrounds for seniors or "staycations" - developments that could also be called trends - do not occur in Vejlgard's Anatomy.

Vejlgard entertains with a wide array of interesting examples - ranging from the history of specific haircuts to the rise and fall of fashion labels. Even when he ventures into more mundane fields like microbrewing, Vejlgard fails to connect the emerging trend pattern to the existing needs and desires in a society that this trend is thriving on.
In his model, trends spread from trend creators to trend setters and trend followers and - in some cases - to mainstream. He identifies the usual suspects among the trend setters and the trend setting cities and other pre-condititions for turning a fad into a trend.
In Vejlgard's view trends come about mainly as a reaction to mainstream or simply because trendsetters have a need for perpetual change. Although "megatrends" are mentioned, Vejlgard refrains from connecting them to his trends. He claims that megatrends are hard to predict and would fill a number of books to analyse. Well. I would not subscribe to that notion. His exclusion of megatrends is a strange inaccuracy, given that he is establishing a list of cues that help to determine whether something new will likely turn into a trend or not.

Vejlgard is also not at ease with the effects of web2.0 and social media. Only at the very end does he ponder whether the internet will change or speed up the trend process described in his model. He concludes that no, there will be no changes.

"As the world becomes more individualized, with media to suit individual needs, fewer people will read the same media, and this means that a less-varied group of people will get the same information at the same time. And this will make it more difficult for a trend to gain momentum." Others have described this trend towards individualization of trends (yes, it is a trend too - a megatrend, in V.'s veiw) as an effect of the "long tail" and called it "microtrends". As Vejlgard eliminates megatrends, he once again cannot see how the trend process is influenced by these bigger currents.

On the whole:

• Some good points that can be transferred to a more general or more analytic model for describing how trends come into being. Probably perfect reading for aspiring fashion trend spotters.
• Some disappointment that "Anatomy of a Trend" does not put a trend or new behavioral pattern into its socio-economic context and is focussing only on the trendy trends.