Transformation through Story Telling

While on a rational level, most people agree that a fundamental shift in society and culture is necessary to tackle the problems of today, it seems very hard to make that leap on a personal level, leave alone a community or institutional level.
I was reminded of that when I watched the speech that UK prime minister Gordon Brown recently gave at the TED conference. He states that we are at a unique historic moment where we are more interconnected than ever before and we are also developing a global ethic, both promising preconditions for solving global problems - poverty, climate change, economic crisis - in a global way.The solution he proposed remained vague but he clearly saw a need for a central institution which would have the means to globally enforce agreements or regulations. While this may certainly be part of the solution, I missed concepts of co-creation, empowerment, collaboration and individual responsibility in his vision. Being inside a politician's story maybe did not allow him to see that new forms of governance would be central to such a solution, if it is not just to repeat the patterns of administrative institutions stricken by political power-struggles.

Another example for a solution that repeats past patterns is the idea of a British company to put RFID barcodes on trees so that controlling the sustainability of forests becomes more transparent. They even assume that tagging trees could play a role in fighting deforestation, and therefore, could be seen as a measure to stop global warming. But the underlying concept is still that we can care only for things that we can control and that nature has to be properly put into our warehousing system for us to see its value. An alternative to applying technical control mechanisms could be to bring forests and communities together, something that Roald Gundersen and Amelia Baxter are trying to do with their Community Supported Forests. Members will get a specific part of the forest where they "can camp, hunt and garden on the land. They can forage for mushrooms, garlic mustard and wild ginger. They can get firewood, sustainably milled lumber, landscaping stone or fresh spring water." And in doing that, they will have a chance to get to know the forest as a friend and not just as a distant resource. That's a very different story, right?

Recently I heard of the Dark Mountain Project, a literary movement to rewrite the stories that we base our assumptions on. "We aim to question the stories that underpin our failing civilisation, to craft new ones for the age ahead and to write clearly and honestly about our true place in the world."

Becoming aware of the narratives that we live by and re-inventing them is very much what we need, in my view, to have a new context for transformation - on a personal, community or even institutional level.

Cooking up the Future

How To Cook Up The Future

View more documents from Ines Seidel.

I came up with this little "How to" after thinking about Empowerment.

Empowerment is certainly one of the key words of our time. We see the empowered web-user, the empowered consumer, the empowered employee, the empowered learner,... Empowerment leads to a certain demystification of the expert - the expert is valued not so much because of the facts that she knows but because she can facilitate others to behave in an expert way: teachers are to facilitate learners to teach themselves, leaders are to lead people to lead themselves, brands let consumers create their own brand experience.

What does or could empowerment lead to in the field of foresight consulting? And what is the role of the expert here?

I think that also in relation to THE FUTURE, the expert has to be demystified. Empowerment of everybody is necessary as everybody should understand that THE FUTURE is not something that happens to us, but is instead an experience that we create collectively, by choosing to live one way rather than another way.

Much like a soup can - for better or worse - be cooked by many cooks, we all create the context for the next-moment-experience together. Typically, without being aware of it. Conscious decision making could lead to better results, right?

Semantic Conflicts and Orthographic Anarchy

After reading about the social grammar of change (see Theory U by Otto Scharmer) I had an encounter with the semantics of social conflict today.

I was hiking with colleagues and the day was a bad choice as the weather was a variation of heavy rain, mist and just a few spells of sun. Finally sitting in the Panoramarestaurant on mount Wallberg, we did not get to see the scenic mountain panorama. But we got something more mystic and enchanting, at least this is how the view of the rising fog, crawling up alongside the mountain and rising into the sky, looked to me.

Was it really fog or should one speak of clouds? This is the question that led to a dispute between two of my colleagues: One insisted that what barred our view was fog, the other was convinced that in reality, the mist outside was a cloud. While the two discussed this, I realized that they actually had slightly different interpretations or semantics behind the same words. For the one, “fog” was what could be around you, while a “cloud” was further away (typically up in the sky, or potentially down in the sky when seen from a plane). For the other, “fog” was what materialized itself above surfaces while a “cloud” always formed in the sky. Down in our office, the two men would not even notice the uneven meaning they attribute to the same sequence of sounds. Up in the mountains, this slight distinctness became apparent (the mist was around us but appeared to have formed in the sky) and hence, a conflict arose.

Not a serious conflict, of course, but it brought home the familiar wisdom that much of the disputes and quarrels in our everyday life are actually about different uses of words and unnoticed misunderstandings. If we are able to go from dispute to dialogue (e.g. by applying the rules of nonviolent communication), we could probably more often than not uncover the deeper reason for conflict: Diverse meanings are associated to words or whole texts and we are not very conscious of this, we make vague assumptions about the intentions or interpretaitons of the other without asking for verification. Once these deeper layers of communication can be identified and laid open, finding “a common language” would be a lot easier.

Language and also how we use and understand it is fuzzy by nature and constantly evolving. It is only the dictionaries and grammar rules that make language look like something fixed. At school, pupils are trained to believe in these rules, they are taught that a sentence or a word can be used and written either correctly or incorrectly. Different contexts or different learning paths behind the word that an individual uses, play next to no role.

Which makes me wonder if Civilization 2.0, if we make it to this advanced level, would have a need to write down language rules. For the future society, it would be more important to foster communication “rules” or rather communication practices which allow people to lay open their semantics and interpretations as soon as they notice signs of misunderstanding. Probably there would be less mindless talk and more appreciation of diversity, as a result. Orthography might become an indicator of the historical context of a text. And individual orthography may be just as acceptable as the individual message of an author - any author, starting with the pupil in elementary school. (Written words may not even be as vital as we believe them to be today. Who knows, writing may be totally optional to learn...)

Come to think of it, signs for the end of orthographic rules can be found easily already today:

• Many authors have developed an individual way of expressing their thoughts also through an individual orthography. That makes their texts harder to read. That also means a reader will automatically pay much more attention to every single word and its contextual meaning.
• We hear that orthography of young people is getting worse because of texting. Txtng forcs U 2 rite n reed creatively. No rules, just be short.
• I have read and heard time and again that more pupils leave school and more students leave university without proper basic reading and writing skills. Maybe this lack of internalized rules can translate into freemindedness or creativity? A radical thought, but hey...
• Already today, keyboards are being replaced by touch screens. And when futurists say that we will stop typing or writing as everything can be controlled or communicated with spoken language or directly with thoughts, they may be talking of a very near future. Sensors and software that can comprehend language is already in use today, and also tools that can read the mind or respond to emotions already exist.
  

When written language becomes less important, so will grammar and orthography. This has implications basically for the way we learn foreign languages, but not for learning the mother tongue. (Sigh of relief ... no collective aphasia!).

On the other hand, semantics – the study of meaning - will become a lot more important, but not as a set of semantic rules, but rather as an awareness for context-based semantics and personal semantics.

The semantics of social conflict is replaced by a semantics of dialogue and awareness.

Living in "the One"

In the video below, Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired magazine, talks about the future of the web. His starting point is that the World Wide Web is just around 5000 days old. And yet, it has already transformed from a net where computers link to each other to a web in which pages link to each other. The next steps will be interlinking data, ideas, whole databases and physical objects. As a result what we now know as the Web will transform into the Internet of Things in the next 5000 days. The Internet of Things will possibly be more like an organism, and we are a part of this encompassing "One".

Not only the idea of "the One" is interesting but also how Kelly supports his vision. He refers to the dated vision from 5000 days ago that the future would be about "TV, but better". This has proven to be a wrong prediction - and what can (or must?) be learned from this false prediction is that something that appears impossible today has a likelier probability than something that is within the confines of our today's perception of reality. In that sense "the internet, but better" is not a likely end point of the next 5000 days.
Kevin Kelly also compares our total dependence on the alphabet today to the total dependence on "the One" that we may experience in the future: It will not be frightening, it will be the usual.

In a way, we have already started to ask "the One" about ourselves. Look at Gartner's prediction that trend watching will become a must for many companies in the future (see this posting). Demand for behavior monitoring is fuel for tools that can intelligently make sense of the blogs, comments, news that are being produced every day through semantic processing. Such tools already exist (e.g. Audience Wisdom of Active Inspire) and they will learn to become better.



Now, here some food for thought: When we will be totally connected to "the One" we will forget that we are connected. When we never plug out, we will lack a notion of being plugged in.

What if that has already happened and we are so wired into "the One" (or call it "the Matrix" :-) that we cannot even imagine what it is like to be outside? Well, I don't know but at any rate this is fuel for the Simulation Argument that I mentionend in an earlier post.) And, yes, I would like to plug in and out according to my own choice...

Video found through freshcreation

HOW TO..prepare for the future?

Reading "Inevitable Surprises. A survival guide for the 21st Century" five years after its publication has the advantage of knowing a few more details about 2008 than Peter Schwartz could foresee when he wrote the book. Well, 2008 was not too much in his focus anyway, he was thinking even further ahead into the 21st Century. With most of his predictions he would still be right. Although one wonders, if he would place his weights differently.

For instance web2.o and the empowerment of users. Today, the new technology combined with new consumer behaviours are seen as having game changing implications for all aspects of society. Signs of wikinomics were clearly visible already in 2003, but not worth special attention to Peter Schwartz. And maybe rightly so, the discussions seem a bit over-hyped.

When Peter Schwartz predicted the "Long Boom" he warned that this boom would be threatened by downturns, terrorrism, the pressure on middle class and other factors. Today, scarcity of resources, financial crises and the feeling of being at risk are slowing down consumption in the West. The Long Boom looks more like an alternative to a long phase of Downsizing, at least in the Western world.

When Schwartz emphasized the "rogue superpower" role of the U.S., did he underestimate China and the general shift of the center of gravity towards Asia?

These are just thoughts though, I may be more under the influence of circumstances than I am aware of.

Anyway, the most valuable part of "Inevitable Surprises" is the advice Peter Schartz offers at the end of the book. How to prepare for the future?

• Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence system. Keep observing signs and discuss implications with others.


• Cultivate a sense of timing. Develop a feeling for how fast changes are happening.


• Indentify in advance the kinds of "early-warning indicators" that would signal that a change is rapidly upon you. Look out for these signals.


• Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction. Practice discarding counterproductive units, agencies, politics, values... . Learn how to handle the pain of disruption (and embrace the creativity that comes from it)


• Try to avoid denial. When developing versions of possible futures some of those futures tend to be more discomforting. Don't pretend that these futures are the most unlikely anyway. Take the uneasiness as a signal for mental blinders.


• Think like a commodity company. There inevitably are fat and lean years.


• Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgment that new situations require. Know the limits of your knowledge and experience.


• Place a very, very high premium on learning. Failures to adapt often are failures to learn from earlier mistakes.


• Place a very high premium on environmental and ecological sustainability. Not just for the obvious reason. Sustainable behaviour facilitates learning about side effects and 2nd order consequences of actions.


• Place a very high premium on financial infrastructure and support. Have safety nets in place.


• Cultivate connections. Going through transitions is easier with supporting connections than alone.

Surviving LOHAS

The New York Times recently had an article on Americans who are preparing for the worst - the worst being natural catastrophes like Katrina, blackouts, terrorist attacks or any other incidents that would make essentials like energy or food unaffordable or unavailable: People start to stockpile canned food and medicine, they grow vegetables in their gardens and install solar panels on their roofs.
The phenomenon was coined “New Survivalism” and is backed by authers like Barton M. Biggs, the former chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, who wrote in his new book “Wealth, War and Wisdom”, that people should stock their homes with “seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments of riot and rebellion when law and order temporarily completely breaks down.”

Sounds too gloomy ? Compare this to a sunnier view of the future:

“The LOHAS market forecast is sunny and is predicted to grow to $420 billion by 2010, and $845 billion by 2014. Fortunately, the influential LOHAS market believes that it is important for companies not just to be profitable, but to be mindful of their impact on the environment and society.” (American wellness network – but could have been found elsewhere too)

LOHAS is short for Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability – and people adopting that lifestyle are seen as the pace makers for the economy. LOHAS means consumption. Critical consumption. Green consumption. Sustainable consumption. Therefore, countless surveys, marketing strategies and business cases are developed around the LOHAS market potential. But the LOHAS industry is built on an overly optimistic scenario: Climate change leads to ecological awareness and more conscious consumption patterns. What if climate change and other catastrophes come closer to home? Will people still fall for green marketing and sustainability messages?

The “New survivalists” offer some lessons.

See also my earlier post on likely effects of climate change.

Stress and Lies

Got this in an Iconoculture newsletter some weeks ago:

According to a Watson Wyatt Worldwide study, stress is the leading cause that prompts people to quit their jobs. Yet stress is not even among the top five reasons cited by employers, who instead believe insufficient pay is why people generally leave.

Well, as this startling discrepancy shows, it is not just the stress but also a lack of communication that drives people to leave their jobs. And that should ring a few alarm bells, because forecasts tell that enterprises will need more than attractive pay in the future war for talent.

So what does it take to build a stress-reducing, communicative atmosphere? It’s a wide field... One does not need the gift of clearvoyance to see a big market for enterprise consulting coming up. From collaborative software to motivational interior design everything is on sale already. And I predict that the time has come for graduates of social studies and psychology to enter the consulting profession big time and tell top management about practical implications of non-verbal communication, group dynamics or the latest in anthropology.

That reminds of a “breakthrough idea” which Paul Root Wolpe and Daniel D. Langleben shared in the February issue of Harvard Business Review (see all ideas here):

Accurate, reliable lie detection using functional MRI technology may well be within our grasp. The potential applications in business and elsewhere are many, but peeking inside people's brains is a delicate matter that interested firms will want to handle with the utmost care

Eek, that does not sound very trust-enabling… But leaving initial concerns aside, such technology might actually help finding out in which situations employees feel uneasy or nervous – and how measures such as office redesign or a certain communicative conduct reduce or increase the stress level.

An easy to use gadget that puts a figure on the feel-good-factor of an office. Wow, that would help figure-fixated employers comprehend the power of stress. And I bet investors would love to get their daily update on the stress level of CEOs, too...

Climate changes what?

Climate change is making big headlines, and rightly so. Yet, when you try to find out what climate change means for you, personally, in the next 5, 10 years, all you get is abstract scenarios (at best): tourism will suffer in certain regions, as will agriculture and transport, we'll see more catastrophes like tsunamis, and the extinction of species ...things like that. And on the other hand, you get ecofriendly technologies, LOHAS, governments discussing ... which is all ok, but i still think that the real topic has not been touched yet. Or am I the only one thinking that upgrading my home and my lifestyle has very little to do with the impact climate change will have on my life?

How are we going to live with limited resources in a more fragile world?

I am not a futurologist. So here some wild guesses that I suspect many share. (Maybe inspired by growing up in the GDR, a country with limited energy resources and a high premium on over-the-border transport as well)

Due to higher costs of transport & energy, prices will rise for all products, including groceries. People will have new priorities when they go shopping: Food is more valued. Exotic fruit will be the luxury they once were and locally produced food the cheaper choice. Overall, the range of brands will diminish - local manufacturers compete with only a few global brands (who often will also source locally). Also travelling will be more of a luxury, hence the world will get smaller. Local bonds will be strengthened with a new interest in feasts and rituals. Who will care any longer what catastrophes happen in a far away country when the disasters in your neighbourhood take up all your compassion.

OK, that may sound like a fallback to medieval times. Which would be nonsense as a complete picture. I am quite sure about the end of consumerism and throwaway society, though. The economic crisis that will accompany this will be a pain and a challenge to the social stability of Western nations... Is this why nobody is interested in writing about such visions? Instead, you get soothing stories about investing in green shares, buying low-energy lightbulbs, driving a conscience-friendly car. I'll keep looking for answers...

Waiting for the millennials

Visited the Medientage München.This year the central theme was 'Media Yourself – How the Internet is Transforming Media and Society'. Was there just for 2 hours - admittedly not enough time to get anything but a superficial impression. Which was that yes, as the title and the many panel discussions suggested, media and marketing companies are waking up to web2.0. But the challenges or opportunities that come with "consumer empowerment" are seen as a thing of the future. Let the experts discuss, for the sales reps at the booth its business as usual.

And maybe they are right.

"I don't believe in interactivity." - I heard from Fitness Company. The fitness club was there to present their brand new Fitcom.music TV as a marketing tool. Is it possible for users to select music? Or how about connecting an ipod to the server to transfer the favourite playlist? Blank face. The current target group does not need this. Maybe when a different age group is entering the fitness clubs.

Ever heard of Betty TV ? An interactive remote control that lets you - for instance - participate in quiz shows or order promoted products. Nice idea actually, introduced in Switzerland in 2006, celebrated as the first push worldwide into interactive TV. At that time, triple play and convergence were the next big thing - and Swisscom, which had bought Betty TV, received a lot of attention for playing to it.
Since its start in Germany this February, the clumsy Betty TV remote control found its way into 120.000 households in Germany. (Well, one more actually, provided I get round to setting up the kit I got as a gift.) But is there a Betty community? Any interaction apart from transmitting lotto numbers or responding to A-B-or-C-questions that fit into the tiny display? No. And maybe there never will be. Because the people using Betty TV are classic couch potatoes, who will prefer simple options on a simple remote control to complicated menus or interactions.
I believe in simplicity myself, but still... Just found out that Betty TV is closing down in Switzerland by end of this month because results did not meet the company's expectations. Could it be that Betty also did not meet consumer's expectations?

The stand of the Bavarian public TV channel (Bayerischer Rundfunk) highlighted the podcast download center of its website. Wow. And can I rate or comment podcasts? No. Could I export them to my blog? Ah, well, that is not as it is supposed to be. But I could definitely put a link.

Everybody seems to wait for the millennials, who will demand what the experts were guessing at in their podium discussions.

Some of the next generation were actually there, too. Had themselves photographed with mobile phones at Next ID's booth to find out how much (in %) they look like David or Victoria Beckham. The result was displayed on a big screen. Fun idea. At mi-friends a group of millennials were giving examples about what they would do with a solution like mi-friends. - Btw...an interesting, so far non-commercial project, most of my 2 hours I spent at their booth, getting a free lecture on the mi-friends pilots, the web2.0 hype and reality. Worth a separate post once I read through the material I carried home with me...

Future Web

Browsing through the internet - news sites and blogs - these days can give you the impression that with Google's opensocial initiative, we're really at the threshold to a new web. For sure, Google's opensocial initiative is a brandnew topic in the realm of Google searches as the graphs above show (for comparison I chose "widget"- a search term with a longer history.)

"Creating a standard API is only the first step. Google's vision, according to Joe Kraus, the developer in charge of the project, is to push for more open interfaces between rival social networks, so that personal data are no longer trapped in any one system." - the Financial Times wrote. And Business Week was musing whether even Facebook or Yahoo might join the party.

"Given the magnitude of the change in Web consumption behavior brought about by social networking sites, newspaper companies need to think about how their content, tools and services might interoperate with these standards. " suggests Steve Yelvington in his blog dedicated to media topics.

But newspaper companies are certainly not the only ones who should brainstorm about opportunities. If Google's vision comes true users might want to manage every service from their profile - from getting an appointment with the local dentist to paying taxes or booking flights. Maybe a little far fetched at the moment... but some threats are real already: According to TechCrunch, opensocial is not paying much attention to security and can easily be hacked.