HOW TO..prepare for the future?

Reading "Inevitable Surprises. A survival guide for the 21st Century" five years after its publication has the advantage of knowing a few more details about 2008 than Peter Schwartz could foresee when he wrote the book. Well, 2008 was not too much in his focus anyway, he was thinking even further ahead into the 21st Century. With most of his predictions he would still be right. Although one wonders, if he would place his weights differently.

For instance web2.o and the empowerment of users. Today, the new technology combined with new consumer behaviours are seen as having game changing implications for all aspects of society. Signs of wikinomics were clearly visible already in 2003, but not worth special attention to Peter Schwartz. And maybe rightly so, the discussions seem a bit over-hyped.

When Peter Schwartz predicted the "Long Boom" he warned that this boom would be threatened by downturns, terrorrism, the pressure on middle class and other factors. Today, scarcity of resources, financial crises and the feeling of being at risk are slowing down consumption in the West. The Long Boom looks more like an alternative to a long phase of Downsizing, at least in the Western world.

When Schwartz emphasized the "rogue superpower" role of the U.S., did he underestimate China and the general shift of the center of gravity towards Asia?

These are just thoughts though, I may be more under the influence of circumstances than I am aware of.

Anyway, the most valuable part of "Inevitable Surprises" is the advice Peter Schartz offers at the end of the book. How to prepare for the future?

• Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence system. Keep observing signs and discuss implications with others.


• Cultivate a sense of timing. Develop a feeling for how fast changes are happening.


• Indentify in advance the kinds of "early-warning indicators" that would signal that a change is rapidly upon you. Look out for these signals.


• Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction. Practice discarding counterproductive units, agencies, politics, values... . Learn how to handle the pain of disruption (and embrace the creativity that comes from it)


• Try to avoid denial. When developing versions of possible futures some of those futures tend to be more discomforting. Don't pretend that these futures are the most unlikely anyway. Take the uneasiness as a signal for mental blinders.


• Think like a commodity company. There inevitably are fat and lean years.


• Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgment that new situations require. Know the limits of your knowledge and experience.


• Place a very, very high premium on learning. Failures to adapt often are failures to learn from earlier mistakes.


• Place a very high premium on environmental and ecological sustainability. Not just for the obvious reason. Sustainable behaviour facilitates learning about side effects and 2nd order consequences of actions.


• Place a very high premium on financial infrastructure and support. Have safety nets in place.


• Cultivate connections. Going through transitions is easier with supporting connections than alone.